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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 9

Lech Poznań

LEC

Radomiak Radom

RAD

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lech Poznań68%
Draw18%
Radomiak Radom14%

Expected goals

2.39 – 1.05

Over 2.5

66%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.7%
  • 2–09.3%
  • 1–08.2%
  • 1–18.1%
  • 3–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Radomiak Radom get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession47%
42%Territory38%
18%From set plays36%
0.11Chance quality0.11
4.4%Directness5.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Lech Poznań, 3 for Radomiak Radom. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.