Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 9
Korona Kielce
KOR
Raków Częstochowa
RAK
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Korona Kielce53%
Draw23%
Raków Częstochowa23%
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.25
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–07.6%
- 3–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession55%
42%Territory43%
32%From set plays26%
0.11Chance quality0.08
5.2%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Korona Kielce, 5 for Raków Częstochowa.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.