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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 9

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Legia Warszawa

LEG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Jagiellonia Białystok38%
Draw25%
Legia Warszawa37%

Expected goals

1.61 – 1.59

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.7%
  • 2–18.3%
  • 1–28.2%
  • 1–07.0%
  • 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Legia Warszawa get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession54%
36%Territory46%
12%From set plays28%
0.12Chance quality0.16
4.6%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 3 for Legia Warszawa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.