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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 4

Wisła Płock

WIA

Lech Poznań

LEC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Wisła Płock27%
Draw27%
Lech Poznań47%

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.58

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 0–110.8%
  • 1–29.4%
  • 0–27.8%
  • 1–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Wisła Płock get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

50%Possession53%
40%Territory42%
46%From set plays18%
0.13Chance quality0.11
3.4%Directness4.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wisła Płock, 4 for Lech Poznań. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.