Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 4
Wisła Płock
WIA
Lech Poznań
LEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Wisła Płock21%
Draw25%
Lech Poznań54%
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.75
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–111.3%
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.2%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession52%
33%Territory35%
10%From set plays13%
0.10Chance quality0.14
5.9%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wisła Płock, 3 for Lech Poznań. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 115 matches, not the full season.