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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 4

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Pogoń Szczecin

POG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Jagiellonia Białystok52%
Draw23%
Pogoń Szczecin26%

Expected goals

2.03 – 1.43

Over 2.5

66%

Both to score

67%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.4%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 1–06.9%
  • 2–26.7%
  • 2–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

56%Possession45%
38%Territory39%
13%From set plays22%
0.13Chance quality0.14
4.3%Directness6.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 2 for Pogoń Szczecin. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 112 matches, not the full season.