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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ekstraklasa · Matchweek 4

Jagiellonia Białystok

JAG

Pogoń Szczecin

POG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Jagiellonia Białystok44%
Draw25%
Pogoń Szczecin31%

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.47

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.5%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 1–07.5%
  • 1–27.3%
  • 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Pogoń Szczecin get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession45%
36%Territory40%
12%From set plays48%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.6%Directness6.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Jagiellonia Białystok, 3 for Pogoń Szczecin. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 69 matches, not the full season.