Ligue 2 · Matchweek 26
Saint-Étienne
SAI
Red Star
RED
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Saint-Étienne50%
Draw29%
Red Star21%
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.85
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.2%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–011.6%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
57%Possession53%
44%Territory37%
30%From set plays17%
0.08Chance quality0.06
3.4%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Saint-Étienne, 2 for Red Star. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Red Star
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.