Ligue 2 · Matchweek 26
Boulogne
BOU
Metz
MET
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Boulogne49%
Draw27%
Metz24%
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.99
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Metz will have the ball; Boulogne will not mind.
41%Possession57%
37%Territory41%
31%From set plays23%
0.10Chance quality0.11
7.6%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Boulogne, 3 for Metz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 97 matches, not the full season.