Ligue 2 · Matchweek 25
Metz
MET
Dunkerque
DUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Metz37%
Draw24%
Dunkerque39%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.72
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.0%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession56%
39%Territory31%
20%From set plays30%
0.11Chance quality0.12
8.4%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Metz, 3 for Dunkerque. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.