Ligue 2 · Matchweek 24
Dunkerque
DUN
Dijon
DIJ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dunkerque45%
Draw23%
Dijon33%
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.70
Over 2.5
70%
Both to score
71%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–18.9%
- 2–18.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–27.1%
- 1–05.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession57%
31%Territory42%
30%From set plays28%
0.12Chance quality0.15
7.7%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dunkerque, 4 for Dijon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.