Ligue 2 · Matchweek 22
Metz
MET
Montpellier
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Metz30%
Draw25%
Montpellier45%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.72
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.2%
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession61%
39%Territory30%
20%From set plays7%
0.11Chance quality0.15
8.4%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Metz, 3 for Montpellier. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.