Ligue 2 · Matchweek 21
Saint-Étienne
SAI
Metz
MET
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Saint-Étienne71%
Draw17%
Metz12%
Expected goals
2.54 – 1.03
Over 2.5
68%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.7%
- 3–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession52%
36%Territory29%
11%From set plays24%
0.13Chance quality0.10
5.4%Directness9.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Saint-Étienne, 3 for Metz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Saint-Étienne
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.