Ligue 2 · Matchweek 21
Saint-Étienne
SAI
Metz
MET
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Saint-Étienne66%
Draw20%
Metz14%
Expected goals
2.20 – 0.97
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.9%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession58%
44%Territory39%
30%From set plays20%
0.08Chance quality0.11
3.4%Directness8.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Saint-Étienne, 4 for Metz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.