Ligue 2 · Matchweek 21
Rodez
ROD
Guingamp
GUI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rodez34%
Draw23%
Guingamp43%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.95
Over 2.5
70%
Both to score
71%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–18.9%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.2%
- 0–15.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession46%
49%Territory30%
36%From set plays30%
0.07Chance quality0.16
4.5%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Rodez, 3 for Guingamp. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.