Ligue 2 · Matchweek 21
Nantes
NAN
Boulogne
BOU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nantes30%
Draw32%
Boulogne38%
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.10
Over 2.5
34%
Both to score
43%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–014.2%
- 0–114.0%
- 1–113.5%
- 1–012.0%
- 1–27.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession41%
34%Territory37%
31%From set plays31%
0.11Chance quality0.10
6.1%Directness7.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nantes, 3 for Boulogne. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 99 matches, not the full season.