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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ligue 2 · Matchweek 19

Saint-Étienne

SAI

Dunkerque

DUN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Saint-Étienne69%
Draw17%
Dunkerque14%

Expected goals

2.55 – 1.11

Over 2.5

70%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.3%
  • 2–08.6%
  • 3–17.9%
  • 1–17.3%
  • 1–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Saint-Étienne will have the ball; Dunkerque will not mind.

52%Possession41%
36%Territory29%
11%From set plays7%
0.13Chance quality0.07
5.4%Directness7.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Saint-Étienne, 3 for Dunkerque. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.