Ligue 2 · Matchweek 19
Saint-Étienne
SAI
Dunkerque
DUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Saint-Étienne59%
Draw23%
Dunkerque19%
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.04
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–010.4%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–110.0%
- 2–09.5%
- 3–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession56%
44%Territory31%
30%From set plays30%
0.08Chance quality0.12
3.4%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Saint-Étienne, 3 for Dunkerque. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.