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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ligue 2 · Matchweek 19

Nantes

NAN

Guingamp

GUI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Nantes29%
Draw24%
Guingamp47%

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.87

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

66%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.0%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 0–17.1%
  • 2–17.0%
  • 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nantes will have the ball; Guingamp will not mind.

58%Possession46%
43%Territory30%
26%From set plays30%
0.09Chance quality0.16
5.8%Directness6.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nantes, 3 for Guingamp. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.