Ligue 2 · Matchweek 18
Metz
MET
Dijon
DIJ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Metz53%
Draw22%
Dijon25%
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.48
Over 2.5
69%
Both to score
69%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–06.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession47%
29%Territory31%
24%From set plays16%
0.10Chance quality0.15
9.7%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Metz, 3 for Dijon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.