Ligue 2 · Matchweek 18
Metz
MET
Dijon
DIJ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Metz38%
Draw23%
Dijon39%
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.86
Over 2.5
70%
Both to score
72%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–18.9%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.3%
- 0–15.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession62%
41%Territory42%
23%From set plays24%
0.11Chance quality0.15
8.2%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Metz, 3 for Dijon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 97 matches, not the full season.