Ligue 2 · Matchweek 18
Boulogne
BOU
Sochaux
SOC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Boulogne45%
Draw29%
Sochaux27%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.03
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–012.7%
- 0–010.0%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession43%
30%Territory29%
22%From set plays12%
0.10Chance quality0.11
4.0%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Boulogne, 3 for Sochaux. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sochaux
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.