Ligue 2 · Matchweek 17
Nantes
NAN
Metz
MET
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nantes44%
Draw26%
Metz31%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.34
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.3%
- 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession52%
43%Territory29%
26%From set plays24%
0.09Chance quality0.10
5.8%Directness9.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nantes, 3 for Metz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.