Ligue 2 · Matchweek 17
Dijon
DIJ
Dunkerque
DUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dijon35%
Draw23%
Dunkerque42%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.94
Over 2.5
70%
Both to score
72%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–18.8%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 0–15.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession41%
31%Territory29%
16%From set plays7%
0.15Chance quality0.07
5.4%Directness7.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dijon, 3 for Dunkerque. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.