Ligue 2 · Matchweek 17
Dijon
DIJ
Dunkerque
DUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dijon46%
Draw23%
Dunkerque31%
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.66
Over 2.5
70%
Both to score
71%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–18.8%
- 2–18.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.9%
- 1–05.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession56%
42%Territory31%
28%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.12
5.8%Directness7.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Dijon, 3 for Dunkerque. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.