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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ligue 2 · Matchweek 16

Dunkerque

DUN

Boulogne

BOU

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dunkerque43%
Draw27%
Boulogne30%

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.26

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 0–17.8%
  • 1–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Boulogne get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

41%Possession40%
29%Territory30%
7%From set plays22%
0.07Chance quality0.10
7.5%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dunkerque, 3 for Boulogne. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.