Ligue 2 · Matchweek 15
Metz
MET
Reims
REI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Metz33%
Draw24%
Reims43%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.81
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.9%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession46%
29%Territory29%
24%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.15
9.7%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Metz, 3 for Reims. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.