Ligue 2 · Matchweek 15
Guingamp
GUI
Dijon
DIJ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Guingamp71%
Draw16%
Dijon14%
Expected goals
2.96 – 1.34
Over 2.5
79%
Both to score
70%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–18.1%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.3%
- 3–05.8%
- 4–15.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession47%
30%Territory31%
30%From set plays16%
0.16Chance quality0.15
6.8%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Guingamp, 3 for Dijon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.