Ligue 2 · Matchweek 13
Guingamp
GUI
Rodez
ROD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Guingamp57%
Draw21%
Rodez22%
Expected goals
2.32 – 1.46
Over 2.5
71%
Both to score
70%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–06.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession53%
30%Territory49%
30%From set plays36%
0.16Chance quality0.07
6.8%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Guingamp, 3 for Rodez. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.