Ligue 2 · Matchweek 12
Montpellier
MON
Metz
MET
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Montpellier58%
Draw22%
Metz20%
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.17
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession58%
30%Territory39%
7%From set plays20%
0.15Chance quality0.11
4.3%Directness8.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Montpellier, 4 for Metz. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.