Ligue 2 · Matchweek 12
Dijon
DIJ
Red Star
RED
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dijon42%
Draw26%
Red Star33%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.43
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
62%Possession55%
42%Territory38%
24%From set plays20%
0.15Chance quality0.10
5.7%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dijon, 3 for Red Star. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 99 matches, not the full season.