Ligue 2 · Matchweek 10
Saint-Étienne
SAI
Nantes
NAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Saint-Étienne70%
Draw18%
Nantes13%
Expected goals
2.46 – 1.01
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession58%
36%Territory43%
11%From set plays26%
0.13Chance quality0.09
5.4%Directness5.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Saint-Étienne, 3 for Nantes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Saint-Étienne
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.