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Ligue 2 · Matchweek 10

Saint-Étienne

SAI

Nantes

NAN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Saint-Étienne70%
Draw18%
Nantes13%

Expected goals

2.46 – 1.01

Over 2.5

66%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 209.6%
  • 219.5%
  • 108.2%
  • 317.8%
  • 117.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession58%
36%Territory43%
11%From set plays26%
0.13Chance quality0.09
5.4%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Saint-Étienne, 3 for Nantes. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.