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Ligue 2 · Matchweek 9

Red Star

RED

Saint-Étienne

SAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Red Star36%
Draw25%
Saint-Étienne39%

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.63

Over 2.5

60%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1110.8%
  • 128.5%
  • 218.0%
  • 017.3%
  • 106.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession52%
33%Territory36%
17%From set plays11%
0.15Chance quality0.13
3.6%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Red Star, 3 for Saint-Étienne. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.