Ligue 2 · Matchweek 9
Red Star
RED
Saint-Étienne
SAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Red Star36%
Draw25%
Saint-Étienne39%
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.63
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession52%
33%Territory36%
17%From set plays11%
0.15Chance quality0.13
3.6%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Red Star, 3 for Saint-Étienne. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.