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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Ligue 2 · Matchweek 8

Saint-Étienne

SAI

Rodez

ROD

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Saint-Étienne68%
Draw18%
Rodez15%

Expected goals

2.56 – 1.19

Over 2.5

71%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

-1.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.2%
  • 2–07.9%
  • 3–17.8%
  • 1–17.2%
  • 1–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Rodez get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

52%Possession53%
36%Territory49%
11%From set plays36%
0.13Chance quality0.07
5.4%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Saint-Étienne, 3 for Rodez. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.