Ligue 2 · Matchweek 7
Metz
MET
Saint-Étienne
SAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Metz20%
Draw21%
Saint-Étienne58%
Expected goals
1.22 – 2.13
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–36.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession52%
29%Territory36%
24%From set plays11%
0.10Chance quality0.13
9.7%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Metz, 3 for Saint-Étienne. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.