Ligue 2 · Matchweek 7
Guingamp
GUI
Red Star
RED
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Guingamp41%
Draw24%
Red Star34%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.59
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession52%
30%Territory33%
30%From set plays17%
0.16Chance quality0.15
6.8%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Guingamp, 3 for Red Star. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.