Ligue 1 · Matchweek 24
Nice
NIC
Toulouse
TFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nice30%
Draw27%
Toulouse43%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.47
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.4%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nice get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession55%
34%Territory39%
26%From set plays4%
0.13Chance quality0.13
5.6%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nice, 3 for Toulouse. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.