Ligue 1 · Matchweek 24
Marseille
OM
Monaco
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marseille46%
Draw24%
Monaco30%
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.48
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–07.2%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marseille get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
52%Possession59%
45%Territory49%
35%From set plays14%
0.12Chance quality0.07
4.1%Directness3.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marseille, 3 for Monaco. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.