Ligue 1 · Matchweek 24
Lyon
OL
Troyes
TRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lyon56%
Draw26%
Troyes18%
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.79
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.3%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–011.3%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–19.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lyon will have the ball; Troyes will not mind.
48%Possession39%
40%Territory41%
24%From set plays35%
0.13Chance quality0.10
2.8%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lyon, 3 for Troyes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.