Ligue 1 · Matchweek 24
Brest
BRS
Lille
LIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brest31%
Draw30%
Lille40%
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.27
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.2%
- 0–010.7%
- 1–010.3%
- 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
42%Possession55%
24%Territory36%
20%From set plays36%
0.14Chance quality0.14
7.1%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Brest, 3 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Brest
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.