Ligue 1 · Matchweek 23
Troyes
TRO
Lorient
LOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Troyes27%
Draw33%
Lorient40%
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.09
Over 2.5
31%
Both to score
40%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–015.6%
- 0–115.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–27.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
39%Possession47%
41%Territory36%
35%From set plays42%
0.10Chance quality0.13
8.3%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Troyes, 2 for Lorient. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.