Ligue 1 · Matchweek 23
Toulouse
TFC
Le Mans
LEM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toulouse60%
Draw24%
Le Mans16%
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.80
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.4%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Le Mans get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
55%Possession52%
39%Territory30%
4%From set plays47%
0.13Chance quality0.09
3.0%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toulouse, 3 for Le Mans. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toulouse
Le Mans
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.