Ligue 1 · Matchweek 23
Lille
LIL
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lille52%
Draw25%
Marseille24%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.16
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession52%
36%Territory45%
36%From set plays35%
0.14Chance quality0.12
4.5%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lille, 3 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.