Ligue 1 · Matchweek 23
Lens
RCL
Strasbourg
STR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens51%
Draw25%
Strasbourg24%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.18
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Strasbourg get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
51%Possession48%
29%Territory35%
12%From set plays31%
0.09Chance quality0.10
4.8%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lens, 3 for Strasbourg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Lens
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.