Ligue 1 · Matchweek 23
Le Havre
LEH
Nice
NIC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Havre40%
Draw24%
Nice35%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.62
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession50%
38%Territory34%
25%From set plays26%
0.13Chance quality0.13
5.2%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Havre, 3 for Nice. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.