Ligue 1 · Matchweek 22
Strasbourg
STR
Le Havre
LEH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Strasbourg59%
Draw21%
Le Havre20%
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.30
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–07.1%
- 3–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession43%
35%Territory38%
31%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.0%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Strasbourg, 3 for Le Havre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.