Ligue 1 · Matchweek 22
Lyon
OL
Toulouse
TFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lyon42%
Draw30%
Toulouse28%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.00
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.5%
- 0–110.1%
- 2–18.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lyon get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession55%
40%Territory39%
24%From set plays4%
0.13Chance quality0.13
2.8%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lyon, 3 for Toulouse. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.