Ligue 1 · Matchweek 22
Auxerre
AUX
Lille
LIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Auxerre24%
Draw28%
Lille47%
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.44
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.3%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–28.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lille get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
48%Possession55%
42%Territory36%
16%From set plays36%
0.13Chance quality0.14
5.6%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Auxerre, 3 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Auxerre
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.