Ligue 1 · Matchweek 21
Strasbourg
STR
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Strasbourg44%
Draw23%
Marseille33%
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.69
Over 2.5
69%
Both to score
71%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–27.2%
- 1–05.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession52%
35%Territory45%
31%From set plays35%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.0%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Strasbourg, 3 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.