Ligue 1 · Matchweek 21
Rennes
REN
Toulouse
TFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rennes41%
Draw25%
Toulouse34%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.54
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.8%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession55%
36%Territory39%
12%From set plays4%
0.18Chance quality0.13
4.5%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Rennes, 3 for Toulouse. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.