Ligue 1 · Matchweek 21
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Brest
BRS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PSG68%
Draw19%
Brest13%
Expected goals
2.27 – 0.95
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
71%Possession42%
48%Territory24%
16%From set plays20%
0.16Chance quality0.14
4.5%Directness7.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for PSG, 2 for Brest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Brest
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.