Ligue 1 · Matchweek 21
Nice
NIC
Auxerre
AUX
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nice44%
Draw26%
Auxerre30%
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.34
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–27.3%
- 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession48%
34%Territory42%
26%From set plays16%
0.13Chance quality0.13
5.6%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nice, 3 for Auxerre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Auxerre
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.