Ligue 1 · Matchweek 21
Monaco
MON
Le Mans
LEM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monaco58%
Draw24%
Le Mans18%
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.94
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.2%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Le Mans get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
59%Possession52%
49%Territory30%
14%From set plays47%
0.07Chance quality0.09
3.2%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Monaco, 3 for Le Mans. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Le Mans
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.