Ligue 1 · Matchweek 21
Lille
LIL
Lorient
LOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lille44%
Draw33%
Lorient24%
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.79
Over 2.5
31%
Both to score
39%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016.7%
- 0–015.8%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–08.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
55%Possession47%
36%Territory36%
36%From set plays42%
0.14Chance quality0.13
4.5%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lille, 2 for Lorient. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.