Ligue 1 · Matchweek 21
Lens
RCL
Troyes
TRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens58%
Draw25%
Troyes17%
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.81
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.6%
- 2–011.4%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–09.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lens will have the ball; Troyes will not mind.
51%Possession39%
29%Territory41%
12%From set plays35%
0.09Chance quality0.10
4.8%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lens, 3 for Troyes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Lens
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.