Ligue 1 · Matchweek 21
Le Havre
LEH
Lyon
OL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Havre25%
Draw25%
Lyon50%
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.73
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession48%
38%Territory40%
25%From set plays24%
0.13Chance quality0.13
5.2%Directness2.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Havre, 3 for Lyon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.